非农就业数据超出预期，进一步加剧了美联储可能继续推迟降息的猜测。 美国经济的好消息和劳动力市场持续趋紧，为美联储将利率维持在当前高水平提供了更大的灵活性。 这种持续高利率的政策被通货水平居高不下合理化，但其中却另有难以言表的动机。 非农就业数据强于预期，总体失业率下降至 3.8%。 看似强劲的经济地位，是建立在债务资助的大规模货币和财政支出之上的。 一旦通胀逐步消退，债务和能源价格就将成为焦点。 未来一周将关注通胀和央行活动。 美联储将公布上次会议纪要，欧洲央行、新西兰央行和加拿大央行也将做出利率决定。 预计所有人都将维持利率不变，但对降息前景的言论可能会令市场感到不安。 欧元本周开盘价将高于 1.0800，而英镑则维持在 1.2600 上方。
由于非农就业数据强于预期，美元更加坚挺，同时也继续让债券收益率处于高位。 在新西兰央行议息会议即将召开之前，澳元回落至 0.6600 以下，而纽元则努力守住 0.6000。 新西兰央行正在进行的领导层改组早就该进行了，其行长在管理央行方面做得非常糟糕。 他的关注点似乎更多地集中关于“觉醒”的文化问题上，而不是通胀和利率的核心业务。 此次人事变动对于新西兰政府和人民来说应该是一个好消息。
The Non-Farm Payroll number beat expectations, further fuelling speculation the Fed may continue to defer interest rate cuts, which appears to be the preferred default position. The good news from the US economy and the tighter the labour market, gives more flexibility to the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates at current elevated levels. This penchant for high interest rates is rationalised by the argument of stubbornly high inflation levels, but there are ulterior motives at play. The Non-Farm Payroll number was stronger than expected and the headline Unemployment number, fell to 3.8%. The seemingly strong economic position, is built on massive monetary and fiscal largesse, funded by debt. Debt and energy prices will become a focus once the inflation crises have completely faded. The coming week will focus on inflation and Central Bank activity. The Fed will release their minutes, from their last meeting, and there will be interest rate decisions from the ECB, RBNZ and the Bank of Canada. All are expected to leave rates unchanged, but may tease the markets, with the prospect of looming cuts. The EUR will open the week trading above 1.0800, while the GBP holds above 1.2600.
The commodity currencies suffered a firmer reserve, following the stronger than expected Non-Farm Payroll number, boosting support for bond yields. The AUD slipped back below 0.6600, while the NZD struggles to hold 0.6000, ahead of the impending RBNZ meeting and rate decision. The shake-up underway in the RBNZ leadership, is long overdue, as the Governor has done a shockingly bad job of managing the Central Bank. His focus appears to have been more on ‘woke’ cultural issues, than the core business of inflation and interest rates. The personnel changes will be a huge bonus for the Government and the people of NZ.
由于非农就业数据强于预期，美元更加坚挺，同时也继续让债券收益率处于高位。 在新西兰央行议息会议即将召开之前，澳元回落至 0.6600 以下，而纽元则努力守住 0.6000。 新西兰央行正在进行的领导层改组早就该进行了，其行长在管理央行方面做得非常糟糕。 他的关注点似乎更多地集中关于“觉醒”的文化问题上，而不是通胀和利率的核心业务。 此次人事变动对于新西兰政府和人民来说应该是一个好消息。
The Non-Farm Payroll number beat expectations, further fuelling speculation the Fed may continue to defer interest rate cuts, which appears to be the preferred default position. The good news from the US economy and the tighter the labour market, gives more flexibility to the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates at current elevated levels. This penchant for high interest rates is rationalised by the argument of stubbornly high inflation levels, but there are ulterior motives at play. The Non-Farm Payroll number was stronger than expected and the headline Unemployment number, fell to 3.8%. The seemingly strong economic position, is built on massive monetary and fiscal largesse, funded by debt. Debt and energy prices will become a focus once the inflation crises have completely faded. The coming week will focus on inflation and Central Bank activity. The Fed will release their minutes, from their last meeting, and there will be interest rate decisions from the ECB, RBNZ and the Bank of Canada. All are expected to leave rates unchanged, but may tease the markets, with the prospect of looming cuts. The EUR will open the week trading above 1.0800, while the GBP holds above 1.2600.
The commodity currencies suffered a firmer reserve, following the stronger than expected Non-Farm Payroll number, boosting support for bond yields. The AUD slipped back below 0.6600, while the NZD struggles to hold 0.6000, ahead of the impending RBNZ meeting and rate decision. The shake-up underway in the RBNZ leadership, is long overdue, as the Governor has done a shockingly bad job of managing the Central Bank. His focus appears to have been more on ‘woke’ cultural issues, than the core business of inflation and interest rates. The personnel changes will be a huge bonus for the Government and the people of NZ.
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