隔夜市场 欧洲股市回稳,市场关注今晚美国非农就业数据

受一些积极的经济消息和降息前景的提振,欧洲股市隔夜转好。 欧洲服务业和综合采购经理人指数显示整个欧洲有所改善,但仍处于收缩状态,受到制造业的拖累。 德国的服务正在改善并实际上有所扩大,而欧洲央行则开会考虑降息。 继瑞士央行意外降息后,瑞典央行表示最早将于 5 月考虑降息。 欧洲的通货膨胀率明显下降,这使得各国央行能够通过降息的方式对经济提供支持。 欧盟生产者价格指数 (PPI) 继续大幅收缩,证实生产品批发价格正在下降。 最大的警告是能源价格和黄金。 能源价格和赤字/债务是通货膨胀的驱动因素,这些问题仍然存在,而金价却一直在飙升,是“金矿里的货币金丝雀”。 与此同时,美元继续走软,欧元交投于1.0850上方,而英镑则升至1.2660。
商品货币一直是美元疲软的受益者,澳元飙升至0.6600,而纽元则有望在0.6000上方盘整。 新西兰建筑许可激增 14.1%,而澳大利亚 PMI 数据显示服务业和综合指数稳步改善。 目前所有的目光都集中在美国非农就业数据上。 劳动力市场继续吃紧,会鼓励美联储推迟降息,给股市和债券市场泼冷水。
Equity markets turned positive in Europe overnight, buoyed by some positive economic news and prospects of interest rate cuts. European Services and Composite PMI showed improvements across Europe, while remaining in contraction mode, weighed down by Manufacturing. Services are improving and actually expanded in Germany, while the ECB meets to consider interest rate cuts. The Swedish Central bank indicated they are considering rate cuts, as early as May, following the surprise cut by the Swiss National Bank. Inflation is clearly on the decline in Europe, which allows the Central banks to offer some monetary relief from recessionary economic conditions, in terms of interest rate cuts. EU PPI continued to contract sharply, confirming input wholesale prices are on the decline. The big caveats are energy prices and gold. Energy prices and deficit/debt are the drivers of inflation and these problems remain, while gold prices have been surging and is the ‘monetary canary in the goldmine’. Meanwhile the US Dollar continues to soften, with the EUR trading above 1.0850, while the GBP pushed up to 1.2660.
Commodity currencies have been the beneficiaries of the weaker reserve, with the AUD surging to 0.6600, while the NZD looks to consolidate above 0.6000. NZ Building Permits surged 14.1%, while Australian PMI data, showed steady improvement in Services and Composite readings. All eyes are on the US labour markets and the Non-Farm Payroll number. A tight labour market, only encourages the Fed to defer interest rate cuts and pour cold water on equity and bond markets.
en_NZEnglish (New Zealand)
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