隔夜市场 澳洲央行决议语调强硬

受央行降息和战胜通胀期望的支撑,欧美股市继续上涨。 欧洲银行业是利率下降的受益者,因为其资产负债表上的债务持有量有所改善,且整合仍在继续。 在瑞士信贷倒闭/救助/整合之后,瑞银集团恢复盈利推升股价。 欧洲和美国的“太大而不能倒”的银行将在任何银行业危机中幸存下来,但区域性和二线银行将面临极大的压力。 德国贸易数据有所改善,出口增长,但保护主义抬头、德国工业竞争力缺乏以及能源成本高企的警告依然存在。 尽管美元坚挺,欧元仍成功反弹,升至 1.0770,而英镑在英国央行利率决定前回落至 1.2500 以下。
澳大利亚央行在利率决定中出人意料地强硬,警告通胀进一步上升以及未来可能加息。 澳洲联储还警告称,尽管移民数量创纪录,但经济形势仍将更加严峻,国内生产总值增长将下降。 澳大利亚央行正在打一场必败之仗,因为政府加大财政投入,加剧通胀,而澳大利亚央行则试图通过提高利率来降温。 货币政策和财政政策的这种矛盾将给消费者带来更多痛苦。 澳洲联储行长的鹰派评论最初提振了澳元,但美元上升戳破了泡沫,澳元回落至0.6600以下,而纽元则回落0.6000。
European and US equity markets continued to rally strongly, supported by the growing confidence in Central Bank rate cuts and the conquest over inflation. The Banking in Europe are beneficiaries of a decline in interest rates, as their debt holdings on the balance sheet will improve and consolidation continues. The UBS bank returned to profit and surged their share price, following the Credit Suisse collapse/bail-out/consolidation. The ‘too-big-to-fail’ banks in both Europe and the US, will survive any banking crises, but the regional and second-tier ones, will be the ones under extreme pressure. German Trade data improved, with exports rising, but warnings over growing protectionism, lack of German industry competitiveness, and high energy costs remain. The EUR managed to rally despite a firm US Dollar, jumping to 1.0770, while the GBP dipped back below 1.2500, ahead of the Bank of England Interest rate decision.
The RBA was surprisingly hawkish in their rate decision, warning of further rises in inflation and possible rate rises to come. The RBA also warned of tougher economic conditions, with GDP growth declining, despite massive and record immigration. The RBA is fighting a losing battle as the Government pour on the fiscal taps, fuelling inflation, while the RBA attempts to cool, with higher rates. This contradiction of monetary and fiscal policy will result in more pain for the consumer. The hawkish commentary from the RBA Governor initially boosted the AUD, but the rising reserve popped that bubble and the AUD slipped back below 0.6000, while the NZD relinquished 0.6000.
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