Comm:隔夜市场 欧洲持续衰退,降息将会到来

欧洲GDP增长率数据出炉,正如预期的那样惨淡。 尽管统计官员为避免技术性衰退进行了一些修修补补,但数据仍显示欧盟经济处于低迷状态并陷入衰退。 德国第四季度 GDP 增长为负 0.3%,而欧盟整体为负 0.1%,这些数字结合近期的 PMI 数据证实德国经济实际上处于去工业化状态。 德国和欧洲各地的农民罢工只会加重这种严峻的经济形势,尤其是罢工持续下去的话。如果目前通胀飙升只是暂时的话,黯淡的经济数据可能会鼓励欧洲央行快速降息。 美国就业机会增加超过预期,证实劳动力市场持续紧张,这只会增加美联储“更长时间”维持较高利率的压力。 美国市场目前等待今晚公布的联邦公开市场委员会利率决定和评论, 在央行利率决定之前,欧元交投于 1.0830 附近,而英镑则维持在 1.2700 以下。


稳定的美元使澳元保持在 0.6600 以下,而在新西兰联储首席经济学家发表鹰派讲话后,新西兰元升至 0.6120。 全球市场都在密切关注今晚美联储(FOMC)议息会议结果和各种美国就业报告。


The European GDP growth rate data came out overnight and was bleak, as expected. The EU economies are in the doldrums and operating in recession, despite some marginal tinkering to avoid the technical recession. German GDP growth contract 0.3% for Q4, while the EU contracted 0.1%. These are demonstrably terrible numbers and confirm the German economy is in a virtual state of de-industrialisation, especially considering the PMI data of recent times. The farmers strike across Germany and Europe will not serve to improve this dire economic situation, especially if extended. The bleak economic data will probably encourage the ECB to cut rates, assuming inflation spikes are temporary. US Jolts Job openings, increased more than expected, confirming the tight labour market continues, which only adds to pressure on the Fed to hold rates ‘higher for longer’. US markets keenly await the FOMC rate decision and commentary due to be delivered tonight. The EUR traded around 1.0830, while the GBP holds under 1.2700, ahead of the Bank of England rate decision.
The steady reserve kept the AUD below 0.6600, while the NZD rose to 0.6120, following a hawkish speech of the RBNZ Chief Economist. All markets keenly await tonight’s FOMC result and the various US jobs reports.

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