波动的储备导致商品货币波动,澳元跌回 0.6600 以下,但在交易日后期才回升。新西兰元经历了同样的波动,美元最初上涨,回落至 0.6100 以下,但在新西兰市场开盘时才回升。新西兰预算基本上被市场忽视了。目前市场所有的目光都集中在今晚晚些时候发布的美国个人消费支出 (PCE) 指标上,该指标可能证实美国通胀率再次回升。
US equity markets tumbled for a second consecutive day, anticipating a serious spike in inflation, from the latest reading from the PCE Indicator. The PCE is the Fed’s favourite measure of inflation and tonight’s reading is expected to show hotter inflation numbers, way outside the 2% upper target limits. This will further decrease the likelihood of rate cuts in the near future, explaining the rises in bond yields and market jitters on equity bourses. The European equity markets rebounded overnight, with positive GDP growth data and inflation readings in line with projections. There is more to come tonight, with key growth and inflation readings from EU members nation, including France and Austria. US Pending Home Sales crashed 7.9%, for April, reflecting the parlous state of the key housing sector. US Q1 2024 GDP preliminary readings reveal continued weakness in economic growth. Q3 2023 growth in the US was an annualised 4.9%, only to crash to 3.4% in Q4 2023, while the latest reading of 1.6% growth is signalling a collapse. The stronger US Dollar was not sustainable, as bond yields drifted back lower, forcing a weaker currency. The EUR fell below 1.0800, only to recover late in the trading day, as the Dollar tumbled back lower. The GBP initially fell below 1.2700, only to recover back to 1.2740, with the market nerves.
The volatile reserve caused commodity currencies to stutter, with the AUD falling back below 0.6600, only to recover later in the trading day. The NZD experienced the same volatility, with the initial rise in the reserve, falling back below 0.6100, only to recover by the NZ market open. The NZ Budget was largely ignored by markets. All eyes are on the US PCE indicator to be released later tonight, to possibly confirm the resurgent US inflation.