隔夜市场 GDP数据显示美国经济陷入麻烦

美国股市连续第二天暴跌,预计最新的 PCE 数据将预示通胀大幅飙升。PCE 是美联储最喜欢的通胀指标,预计今晚的读数将显示更高的通胀数字,远远超出 2% 的上限目标。这将进一步降低近期降息的可能性,从而解释债券收益率上升和股市市场紧张不安的原因。欧洲股市隔夜反弹,GDP 增长数据和通胀读数与预期一致。今晚还有更多消息,包括法国和奥地利等欧盟成员国的关键增长和通胀数据。美国 4 月份待售房屋销售大跌 7.9%,反映出关键住房行业的糟糕状况。美国 2024 年第一季度 GDP 初值显示经济增长持续疲软。美国 2023 年第三季度的年化增长率为 4.9%,但在 2023 年第四季度跌至 3.4%,而最新读数 1.6% 的增长预示着走向崩溃。美元走强是不可持续的,因为债券收益率回落,迫使货币走弱。欧元跌破 1.0800,但在交易日后期才回升,因为美元回落。英镑最初跌破 1.2700,但在市场紧张的情况下回升至 1.2740。
波动的储备导致商品货币波动,澳元跌回 0.6600 以下,但在交易日后期才回升。新西兰元经历了同样的波动,美元最初上涨,回落至 0.6100 以下,但在新西兰市场开盘时才回升。新西兰预算基本上被市场忽视了。目前市场所有的目光都集中在今晚晚些时候发布的美国个人消费支出 (PCE) 指标上,该指标可能证实美国通胀率再次回升。

US equity markets tumbled for a second consecutive day, anticipating a serious spike in inflation, from the latest reading from the PCE Indicator. The PCE is the Fed’s favourite measure of inflation and tonight’s reading is expected to show hotter inflation numbers, way outside the 2% upper target limits. This will further decrease the likelihood of rate cuts in the near future, explaining the rises in bond yields and market jitters on equity bourses. The European equity markets rebounded overnight, with positive GDP growth data and inflation readings in line with projections. There is more to come tonight, with key growth and inflation readings from EU members nation, including France and Austria. US Pending Home Sales crashed 7.9%, for April, reflecting the parlous state of the key housing sector. US Q1 2024 GDP preliminary readings reveal continued weakness in economic growth. Q3 2023 growth in the US was an annualised 4.9%, only to crash to 3.4% in Q4 2023, while the latest reading of 1.6% growth is signalling a collapse. The stronger US Dollar was not sustainable, as bond yields drifted back lower, forcing a weaker currency. The EUR fell below 1.0800, only to recover late in the trading day, as the Dollar tumbled back lower. The GBP initially fell below 1.2700, only to recover back to 1.2740, with the market nerves.
The volatile reserve caused commodity currencies to stutter, with the AUD falling back below 0.6600, only to recover later in the trading day. The NZD experienced the same volatility, with the initial rise in the reserve, falling back below 0.6100, only to recover by the NZ market open. The NZ Budget was largely ignored by markets. All eyes are on the US PCE indicator to be released later tonight, to possibly confirm the resurgent US inflation.

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