隔夜市场 降息预期蔓延

道琼斯指数本周首次收于 40,000 点以上,显示股市对美联储降息的信心。本周数据说明通胀正在下降,劳动力市场正在走软,这为美联储降息提供了机会。美国 PPI 于周五悄然发布,显示出上行压力,但市场基本忽略了这一数据。经济正在陷入衰退,但这反而是通胀真正的解药,赤字和债务支出也继续保持在创纪录的水平。未来一周是数据发布上重要一周,通胀数据、经济增长和欧洲央行的最新利率决定是重点。美元做出了相应的反应,欧元跃升至 1.0870,而英镑迅速接近 1.3000。
美元走弱使商品货币继续复苏,新西兰元重回 0.6100,而澳元有望重回 0.6800。本周对当地市场来说非常重要,澳大利亚就业数据即将发布,新西兰季度通胀数据也即将公布。如果新西兰的通胀率继续下降,那么新西兰央行可能会很快开始降息,这可能会对新西兰元造成下行压力。
The DOW closed the week on 40,000, for the first time in history, confirming the confidence equity markets have in the Fed cutting interest rates. The week confirmed inflation was on the decline and the Labour market is getting softer, allowing the Fed the opportunity to cut rates. The US PPI was quietly released on Friday, which showed upward pressure but was largely ignored by markets. The economy is falling into recession, which is the true cure to inflation, while deficit and debt spending also continues at record levels. This coming week is a huge week for data and statistics, highlighted by inflation numbers, growth and the ECB’s latest interest rate decision. The US Dollar has reacted accordingly, with the EUR jumping to 1.0870, while the GBP fast approaches 1.3000.
The weaker reserve has allowed commodity currencies to continue to recover, with the NZD regaining 0.6100, while the AUD looks to recapture 0.6800. A big week on local markets, with Australian Employment data set to be released and NZ quarterly inflation numbers. If inflation continues to plummet in NZ, then the RBNZ will likely begin to cut rates, which may have downside pressure impact on the KIWI.
Fight, Fight, Fight
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