隔夜市场 通胀回升引起市场犹豫,新西兰等待GDP数据

由于美国通胀飙升,股市从历史高位回落,本周市场收盘下跌。 美国CPI和PPI的下降趋势均出现逆转,如果未来几个月继续维持这种逆转,将会产生严重影响。多国央行未来一周将做出利率决定,日本央行和澳洲联储将于周二率先行动,预计日本央行将扭转长期以来的货币政策并摆脱负利率。 本周晚些时候将轮到美联储和英格兰银行,预计他们都将维持利率不变,但对于市场方向而言,央行维持这一说法的态度将极其重要。 欧洲和英国的通胀数据即使不会影响实际利率,也会影响央行的基调。 欧洲和美国的通胀均出现复活迹象,导致债券收益率上升,美元则收复了部分失地。 欧元将于下周在 1.0900 下方开盘,而英镑则有望维持在 1.2700 上方。
恢复活力的美元打击了商品货币,纽元跌破0.6100,而澳元则跌至0.6550。 通胀和央行利率决定和评论将主导未来一周的经济格局。 新西兰当地的GDP数据可能会证实“技术性衰退”,新西兰当局可能通过一些轻微的数据调整操纵结果以避免被指责。
Markets closed out the week gone by down, with equities retreating from record highs, due to the spike up in US inflation. US CPI and PPI were both showing reversal in the downward trends, which will become a serious problem, if the reversal is repeated in the coming months. This will influence Central banks, with a plethora of interest rate decisions coming in the week ahead. The Bank of Japan and the RBA will lead out on Tuesday, with the BOJ expected to reverse long held monetary policy and move away from negative interest rates. Later in the week will be the turn of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, who are both expected to hold rates, but the narrative will be extremely important, to market direction. Inflation readings from Europe and the UK will impact the Central Banks tone, if not actual interest rates. Inflation has shown signs of resurrection, in both Europe and the US, which has led to higher bond yields, while the US Dollar has regained some lost ground. The EUR will open trade this coming week below 1.0900, while the GBP looks to hold above 1.2700.
The rejuvenated reserve hit the commodity currencies, with the NZD crashing below 0.6100, while the AUD has fallen to 0.6550. Inflation and Central Bank interest rate decisions and commentary will dominate the economic landscape in the week to come. Locally NZ GDP readings could confirm a ‘technical recession’, or by some miracle of minor data manipulation, narrowly avoid the indignance.
en_NZEnglish (New Zealand)
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