隔夜市场 英国工党与澳洲类似

美国独立日长周末使市场得以集中注意力关注欧洲地缘政治事件,尤其是英国大选。保守党政府遭遇历史性溃败,但投票率低,主要政党的支持率下降。在奈杰尔·法拉奇和改革党的迅速崛起的帮助下,“简单多数制”让工党以压倒性优势获胜。英国的经济前景黯淡,新政府的承诺是增加税收和增加移民。英国工党与澳大利亚工党的胜利惊人地相似,实际执政结果也可能相同。这一消息给市场带来了确定性,他们对此感到高兴,英镑跃升至 1.2800。地缘政治的注意力现在将转向法国议会选举的最后一轮,现任议员几乎肯定会遭遇与保守党相同的命运。
美元的走软使得商品货币延续近期涨势,澳元逼近 0.6750,而纽元则在 0.6100 上方盘整。新西兰央行将于本周公布最新利率决定,预计维持利率不变,并发表强硬言论。欧洲和美国的通胀也将是市场关注的焦点,关键数据即将公布。
The effectively extended US Independence Day long weekend allowed markets to focus on European Geo-Political events, and in particular the UK election. The Conservative Government suffered a historical collapse, at the hands of the victorious Labour Party, but on a low turn-out environment and falling support for major Party’s. The ‘first-past-the-post’ system allowed the Labour party to take a landslide win, with only a third of the vote, aided by the meteoric rise of Nigel Farage and the Reform Party. The prospects for Britain look particularly grim with the promise higher taxes and higher immigration. The similarities to the Labor Party win in Australia are eerily similar. The same actual governing result can probably be expected. The news delivered certainty to markets, which they enjoyed, and the GBP jumped to 1.2800. Geo-Political attention will now turn to the final round of the Fench Parliamentary elections, where the incumbent, will almost certainly suffer the same fate as the Tory’s.
The softer reserve allowed commodity currencies to build on recent gains, with the AUD approaching 0.6750, while the NZD consolidates above 0.6100. The RBNZ will have their latest interest rate decision this coming week, which is expected to be a hold with hawkish commentary. Inflation in Europe and the US will also be a particular focus of markets, with key data set for release.
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