隔夜市场 英国加息,市场开始考虑衰退压力

英国央行如预期加息25个基点。英国的通胀压力仍在持续,目前的通胀水平是西方世界中最高的,英国央行必须要做些什么。但通胀的增速似乎正在开始缓解,英镑一度跌破1.2700,在加息消息公布后收复失地,而欧元则稳定在1.0950附近。 美国挑战者就业报告好于预期,仅裁员 23,697 人,这可能代表非农就业数据会有强劲的表现。 市场预计将增加约20万个就业岗位,就业市场的紧张将令美联储头疼。 美联储希望劳动力市场降温,从而减轻通胀压力,停止加息。
 
全球PMI数据继续走弱,衰退压力持续,大宗商品需求放缓。 相关货币在近期下跌后得以企稳,纽元维持在 0.6050,而澳元则在 0.6500 上方盘整。 市场注意力现在转向将于今晚重要的非农就业数据,并考虑该数据将如何影响美联储未来的货币政策。


The Bank of England raised rates by 25 basis points, as expected, keeping the pressure on inflation. The UK is suffering some of the highest inflation levels in the Western world, but they are beginning to ease, so the Bank has no room for inaction. The GBP briefly dipped below 1.2700, but regained ground following the announcement, while the EUR was steady around 1.0950. The US Challenger Jobs report was better than expected, with only 23,697 jobs cuts, which could support a stronger Non-Farm Payroll number. The N-FP number is expected to be around 200,000 jobs added, so any major improvement would be a headache for the Fed. The Federal Reserve is hoping that the labour market will cool, thus reducing the pressure on inflation, which allows the cessation of rate rises.
 
Global PMI data continues to weaken, confirming recessionary pressures, leading to a slowing in commodity demand. The associated currencies were able to stabilise after recent losses, with the NZD holding 0.6050, while the AUD consolidates above 0.6500. Market attention now turns to the all-important Non-Farm Payrolls number, set to be released tonight, and how that will impact the Fed’s monetary policy.

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