隔夜市场 联储会议纪要显示降息”越来越有可能”

美联储发布了最新的 7 月会议纪要,确认开启降息周期“越来越有可能”。会议内容完全符合市场预期,也符合除日本央行和澳大利亚央行以外的其他主要央行的行动。除此以外,市场还在等待重要的央行会议,即美联储主席鲍威尔主持的“杰克逊霍尔研讨会”。市场经济数据这2天很稀少,接下来会密切关注亚洲、欧洲和北美发布的 PMI 数据。欧元小幅走高,突破 1.1100,而英镑飙升至 1.3100。英国财政失衡的数据是一个危险信号,新英国政府的创纪录赤字支出得到消息的证实,即将发布的 10 月预算将迎来一些令人讨厌的增税以及大量的赤字和债务。
美元继续下降,澳元目前接近 0.6750,而新西兰元已飙升至 0.6140 以上。美元走低正成为一个热点话题,随着美国国债收益率下跌,其前景成为焦点。
The Fed released their latest July Minutes, confirming that the rate cutting cycle was ‘increasingly likely’. This was exactly in line with market expectations, and in line with actions from other major Central Banks, except the Bank of Japan and the RBA. This is also leading into the important Central Banks’ conference, the ‘Jackson Hole Symposium’, hosted by the Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. Market economic data has been thin, but markets will look closely at PMI data, to be released across Asia, Europe and North America. The EUR creeps higher, trading up above 1.1100, while the GBP surged to 1.3100. A reading on fiscal imbalance in the UK was a red flag, with record deficit spending by the new UK Government, confirmed. The upcoming October budget will welcome some nasty tax increases and an ocean of deficit and debt.
The declining reserve continues, with the AUD now approaching 0.6750, while the NZD has surged back above 0.6140. The weakness of the US Dollar is becoming a story, as bond yields tumble, and yield is in focus. Look for local PMI data ahead of the Central Bank conference in the US to rock markets.
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