隔夜市场 联储主席放鸽,欧美股市背道而驰

隔夜欧洲市场与美国市场走势背道而驰,欧洲股市进一步下跌,而美国股市则创下历史新高。在美联储主席鲍威尔进一步发表鸽派言论的推动下,美国股市强势上涨。美联储主席重申了早些时候在国会发表的言论,即他们不会等到通胀率降至 2% 的目标水平后再降息。市场预计美联储将在 9 月份之前降息,在隔夜交易中,股市飙升,道琼斯指数上涨逾 600 点。欧洲则是另一番景象。欧洲央行已经开始降息,但经济状况仍然极其严峻,ZEW 经济景气指数的大幅下跌进一步证明了这一点。随着经济衰退的严重蔓延,德国和欧盟的市场情绪出现崩溃。欧洲财长也举行了会议,警告财政支出上顽固的成员国,尤其是法国需要实施财政紧缩政策。欧元回落至 1.0880,而英镑有望重回 1.3000。
欧洲和美国之间的对比是在宏观经济层面上,就方向而言,因为它在很大程度上受到欧洲央行方向和政府财政前景的影响。当地市场正在等待日本短观报告(定于今天发布)和新西兰季度通胀报告。预计新西兰的通胀率将大幅下降,这与新西兰央行最近关于可能降息的温和评论相符。这可能会给新西兰元带来进一步的下行压力,纽元回落至 0.6040,而澳元则跌至 0.6720。中国三中全会将于周四结束,战略计划将公布。
European markets diverged from their US counterparts overnight, with European equity markets suffering further losses, while the US surges into record breaking territory. The US are rallying strongly on the prospects of looming interest rate cuts, with further dovish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. The head of the Federal Reserve reiterated earlier comments before Congress, that they would not wait until inflation fell to the desired level of 2%, before cutting rates. Cuts are expected by September. Equities surged, with the DOW rallying more than 600 points, in overnight trade. Europe was a different kettle of fish. The ECB have already begun to cut rates, but economic conditions remain extremely grim, further evidence by sharp falls in ZEW Economic Sentiment. Sentiment was seen crashing in Germany and the EU, as the recession grips hard. European Finance Ministers also met, warning fiscal tightening needed to come in fiscally recalcitrant members, especially France. The EUR drifted back to 1.0880, while the GBP looks to regain 1.3000.
The contrast between Europe and the US is at a macroeconomic level, in terms of direction, as it is influenced heavily by Central Bank direction and Governmental fiscal prospects in Europe. The local markets are awaiting the Japanese Tankan reports, set to be released today, and the quarterly inflation report in NZ. Inflation in NZ is set to fall sharply, and this would be in line with recent dovish commentary coming out of the RBNZ, regarding possible rate cuts. This may add further downside pressure to the KIWI, which fell back to 0.6040, while the AUD dropped to 0.6720. The Chinese Third Plenum will end Thursday and strategic plans will be revealed.
en_NZEnglish (New Zealand)
Scroll to Top