“特朗普的反弹”势头持续，美国股市周五以上涨结束了强劲的一周。在拜登政权之后，特朗普政府的前景目前令人信服，马斯克和维韦克承诺彻底改革政府支出的计划令人心动不已，而为实现公平贸易而征收关税，是对美国经济的一次大规模反思。真正的因素是，这可能会蔓延到整个西方，其他经济体要么沉没，要么胜利浮出水面。未来一周将关注通胀和增长。欧洲似乎再次出现通胀，没有经济增长，因此他们陷入了进退维谷的境地。地缘政治仍然是对市场的威胁。美元周五再次上涨，欧元跌至 1.0340，英镑跌破 1.2500。
美元上行对新西兰元造成重创，跌至 0.5820，而澳元则跌至 0.6500 以下。由于澳大利亚央行坚持维持高利率，澳元仍获得相当好的支撑，支持利率差不断改善且越来越有吸引力。未来一周，国内市场将关注澳大利亚通胀数据和新西兰央行最新的利率决定。预计新西兰央行将进一步降息，可能降息 50 个基点，刺激经济，但会削弱纽元汇价。
US Markets rallied Friday, to close out a strong week of gains, as the Trump rally continues. Certainty breeds confidence in markets and the prospects of a Trump administration, following the disastrous Biden regime, is compelling. The promise of a complete overhaul in Government spending under Elon and Vivek, is tantalising, while a tariff impost to enable fair trade, is massive rethink of the US economy. The real positive is that this will spread across the West, touch wood, as other economies will either sink or swim. This coming week will look at inflation and growth. Inflation appears to be re-emerging in Europe, without the growth, so they are caught between a rock and hard place. Geo-Politics remain a threat to markets. The US Dollar once again posted gains Friday, with the EUR falling as low as 1.0340, while the GBP plunged below 1.2500.
The surging reserve hit the NZD hard, crashing to 0.5820, while the AUD dipped back below 0.6500. The AUD remains fairly well supported, as the RBA holds fast on high interest rates, supporting an improving and increasingly attractive interest rate differential. This coming week, domestic markets will follow Australian inflation data and the latest RBNZ interest rate decision. The RBNZ is expected to cut rates further, perhaps by 50 basis points, stimulating the economy but undermining the KIWI.
The surging reserve hit the NZD hard, crashing to 0.5820, while the AUD dipped back below 0.6500. The AUD remains fairly well supported, as the RBA holds fast on high interest rates, supporting an improving and increasingly attractive interest rate differential. This coming week, domestic markets will follow Australian inflation data and the latest RBNZ interest rate decision. The RBNZ is expected to cut rates further, perhaps by 50 basis points, stimulating the economy but undermining the KIWI.
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