美国的关键通胀指标PCE符合预期。 这让市场松了一口气,市场原本担心美国和欧洲的通胀再次飙升。 德国通胀率也继续下降,年率降至 2.5%,数据好于预期。 通胀数据正在下降,但警告信号仍然存在,因为供应方面的威胁始终存在。 欧洲的 GDP 数据表明许多欧洲国家正处于衰退之中,斯堪的纳维亚国家、芬兰和瑞典在第四季度都进入了技术性衰退。 经济处于衰退的形势有助于对抗通货膨胀,但也给企业和消费者带来了严重的代价。 美元继续上涨,欧元跌破1.0800,英镑则回落至1.2620。
日本经济也遭遇了不佳的经济形势,工业生产大幅萎缩,新屋开工率也大幅萎缩(收缩 7.5%)。 日本央行现已发出信号,准备结束超宽松货币政策,并可能回归正利率。 这提振了日元,日元反弹至 149.50,但仍面临长期压力。 商品货币继续遭受更大压力,澳元交投于0.6500下方,而纽元则在0.6100下方挣扎。
The key US inflation indicator, the PCE, was in line with expectations. This was a great relief to markets, who had feared a renewed spike in inflation, in both the US and Europe. German inflation also continued to fall, down to 2.5%p.a., which was better than expected. The inflation numbers are falling, but warning signs remain, as threats to the supply side are there and constant. GDP numbers in Europe suggest many European nations are in recession, with both Scandinavian Countries, Finland and Sweden, entering technical recessions in Q4. Tough economic conditions have assisted the war on inflation but at a serious cost to business and the consumer. The US Dollar continued to rally, with the EUR falling below 1.0800, while the GBP slipped back to 1.2620.
The Japanese economy has also suffered tough economic conditions, with Industrial Production contracting sharply, as did Housing Starts (which contracted 7.5%). The Bank of Japan has now signalled an end to the ultra-accommodative monetary policy and may head back towards positive interest rates. This was a boost to the Yen, which rallied to 149.50, but remains under long-term pressure. The commodity currencies continue to suffer a harder reserve, with the AUD trading below 0.6500, while the NZD struggles under 0.6100.