美国8月份通胀数据扭转过去数月下行确实，出现上升，幅度稍微超出市场预期。 在过去几个月，美国通胀率持续急剧下降，市场不太喜欢看到通胀趋势出现大幅逆转。美国通胀主要受食品成本推动，整体通胀升至3.7%，但核心通胀继续下降，核心通胀的继续下降可能会让美联储“暂停”加息，毕竟联储声明中对此考虑得最多。 天气已经进入凉爽季节，欧洲在为冬天做准备，持续增加天然气库存，能源价格仍继续稳步上涨，因此美国通胀微幅超出预期的上涨，仍旧会令市场感到一丝不安。
英国 GDP 大幅萎缩（-0.5%），7 月份制造业和工业生产均出现萎缩，印证经济衰退程度加深。 随着欧洲经济发动机德国出现的快速去工业化，7 月份欧洲工业生产收缩 1.1%。 在今晚欧洲央行会议之前，欧洲债券收益率仍继续稳步上升，但预计欧洲央行维持利率不变的预期依然存在。 由于经济数据极其惨淡，欧元维持在 1.0700 上方，而英镑则交投于 1.2500 以下。
商品货币企稳，澳元维持在 0.6400 上方，而纽元则有望重回 0.5900。 市场注意力将转向将于今天发布的澳大利亚就业数据，然后焦点将转向欧洲央行及其利率决定。在美国，注意力将转向后续的生产者价格指数 (PPI) 数据。
US inflation reversed course, and rose in August, further than expectations. Inflation has been falling in the US at a precipitous rate, for the last couple of months, so a sharp reversal was not welcomed by markets. US inflation rose to 3.7%, boosted by food inflation costs, while core Inflation continued to fall. This will probably allow the Fed to ‘hold the pause’ as core inflation remains a key component of the Central Banks considerations. Markets were uneasy with the sudden heating up of inflation, in the US economy, as energy prices are steadily rising, heading into the cooler seasons. UK GDP contracted sharply (-0.5%), while Manufacturing and Industrial Production both contracted in July, confirming the deepening economic recession. European Industrial Production contracted 1.1% for July, as the rapid de-industrialisation of the European engine-room (Germany) continues. European Bond Yields are steadily rising, ahead of the ECB meeting tonight, but expectations remain, for the Central Bank to hold rates unchanged. The EUR held above 1.0700, while the GBP traded below 1.2500, following the extremely bleak economic data.
Commodity currencies stabilised, with the AUD holding above 0.6400, while the NZD looked to regain 0.5900. Market attention will turn to the Australian Employment data, set to be released today and then the focus will turn to the ECB and their rate decision. The economic narrative arising from the ECB meeting, will be important and in the US, attention will turn to PPI data.
US inflation reversed course, and rose in August, further than expectations. Inflation has been falling in the US at a precipitous rate, for the last couple of months, so a sharp reversal was not welcomed by markets. US inflation rose to 3.7%, boosted by food inflation costs, while core Inflation continued to fall. This will probably allow the Fed to ‘hold the pause’ as core inflation remains a key component of the Central Banks considerations. Markets were uneasy with the sudden heating up of inflation, in the US economy, as energy prices are steadily rising, heading into the cooler seasons. UK GDP contracted sharply (-0.5%), while Manufacturing and Industrial Production both contracted in July, confirming the deepening economic recession. European Industrial Production contracted 1.1% for July, as the rapid de-industrialisation of the European engine-room (Germany) continues. European Bond Yields are steadily rising, ahead of the ECB meeting tonight, but expectations remain, for the Central Bank to hold rates unchanged. The EUR held above 1.0700, while the GBP traded below 1.2500, following the extremely bleak economic data.
Commodity currencies stabilised, with the AUD holding above 0.6400, while the NZD looked to regain 0.5900. Market attention will turn to the Australian Employment data, set to be released today and then the focus will turn to the ECB and their rate decision. The economic narrative arising from the ECB meeting, will be important and in the US, attention will turn to PPI data.
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