隔夜市场 紧缩周期将结束

受美国通胀明显下降的推动,股市本周收盘上涨,升至反弹以来的新高。 通胀暴跌缓解了美联储继续加息的压力,但联储在决定结束紧缩周期前仍寻求劳动力市场状况的缓解。 全球范围内的货币政策紧缩周期可能已经结束,这个紧缩周期在欧洲带来经济衰退,下周将关注欧洲、日本和新西兰的通胀水平以及对货币政策的影响。 中国的GDP增长也即将公布,预计将远高于7%。 美国债券收益率和美元依然疲软,使得欧元交易至1.1200上方,而英镑将维持在1.3100附近。
美元走软使得商品货币有所反弹,澳元交投于0.6800上方,而纽元则飙升至0.6300。 新西兰元将受到周三公布的第二季度消费者物价指数 (CPI) 数据的影响,预期通胀压力将会降温。 澳大利亚就业将成为本周的焦点,尽管本周结束时主要的消息是澳大利亚央行行长被解职。 他因处理通胀失败而获得惩罚,但时机纯粹是政治性的,也是为抵押贷款利率持续上升承担责任的一种方式。
Markets closed out a great week of gains on equity markets, rallying towards record territory, enthused by the big falls in US inflation. Tumbling inflation rates eased the pressure on the Federal Reserve to continue interest rate rises, although they will look for an easing of labour market conditions, before the cycle is complete. The tightening cycle in monetary policy, across the globe, may be at an end, but it has delivered recessionary conditions, especially in Europe. This coming week will look at European, Japanese and NZ inflation levels and the impact on their respective monetary policies. Chinese GDP growth is also set to be released and expectations are for well above 7% annually. US Bond Yields and the Dollar remain soft, allowing the EUR to trade above 1.1200, while the GBP will hold around 1.3100.
The softer reserve has allowed some rebound in the commodity currencies, with the AUD trading above 0.6800, while the NZD surged through 0.6300. The NZD will be impacted by the Q2 CPI number, set to be released Wednesday, and expectations are for inflationary pressures to cool. Australian employment will be a focus during the week, although much of the news, to close out the week, was the dismissal of the Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia. He was rewarded for his failures managing the inflation cycle, but the timing was purely political and a way of apportioning blame for higher mortgage rates.
en_NZEnglish (New Zealand)
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