美国股市在 8 月份收盘时继续上涨，试图在表现不佳的一个月中收复部分失地。 欧洲和美国的最新经济数据都很疲软，但这被视为一个积极因素，代表央行的货币政策终于开始生效，从而不用继续加息。 美国 GDP 增速从 2.4% 下调至 2.1%，而劳动力市场似乎终于开始降温。 就业机会大幅下降，而最新的 ADP 报告显示私营部门就业增长正在减弱。 这些都表明美国经济正在放缓，更重要的是工资/物价螺旋式上升，这是通胀的主要驱动因素。 如果通胀压力减轻，那么美联储可能会确认“通胀峰值”已过，这意味着流动性可能开始释放和回归。 欧洲通胀仍然居高不下，而德国消费者物价指数相当稳定，考虑到经济正在断崖式下跌，这是一个令人担忧的问题。 德国7月进口骤降13.2%，创1987年以来最大跌幅，进一步印证了德国经济的严峻形势。通胀压力减弱，美元回落，欧元重回1.0900上方，英镑则回落。 重回1.2700。
美元走弱使得商品货币进一步反弹盘整，澳元回升至0.6450上方，而纽元则重回0.5950。 澳大利亚（-10.6%）和新西兰（-5.2%）的新屋建筑许可数据证实了房地产行业面临沉重的压力，成本大幅上涨和需求疲软造成了行业损失。 现在市场所有的目光都转向美国通胀和周五的非农就业数据。
US equity markets continued to rally into the close out of August, trying to regain some of the losses, in what has been a bad month on the share markets. The latest economic data, out of both Europe and the USA, is weak. This is seen as a positive, as the Central Bank monetary policies, are finally taking effect. US GDP was reviewed lower, from 2.4%, to 2.1%, while the labour market appears to be finally cooling. Jolts Job opening plunged, while the latest ADP report showed private sector jobs growth was weakening. These all points to a slowing the US economy, and more importantly the wage/price spiral, which was is a major driver of inflation. If the inflation pressure is reduced, then the Fed may recognise ‘peak inflation’, which will mean liquidity may begin to return. European inflation remains stubbornly high, with German CPI numbers fairly static, which is a concern considering the economy is falling off a cliff. German Imports plunged 13.2% for July, the most since 1987, which is further confirmation of the dire situation the German economy is in. The softer inflationary pressures allowed the US Dollar to fall back, with the EUR breaking back above 1.0900, while the GBP regained 1.2700.
The easing of the reserve allowed further consolidation of commodity currencies, with the AUD pushing back above 0.6450, while the NZD regained 0.5950. Building Permits in both Australia (minus 10.6%) and NZ (minus 5.2%) confirmed the pressures in the housing industry, as huge cost rises and flagging demand take their toll. All eyes now turn towards US inflation and the all-important Non-Farm Payrolls number.
US equity markets continued to rally into the close out of August, trying to regain some of the losses, in what has been a bad month on the share markets. The latest economic data, out of both Europe and the USA, is weak. This is seen as a positive, as the Central Bank monetary policies, are finally taking effect. US GDP was reviewed lower, from 2.4%, to 2.1%, while the labour market appears to be finally cooling. Jolts Job opening plunged, while the latest ADP report showed private sector jobs growth was weakening. These all points to a slowing the US economy, and more importantly the wage/price spiral, which was is a major driver of inflation. If the inflation pressure is reduced, then the Fed may recognise ‘peak inflation’, which will mean liquidity may begin to return. European inflation remains stubbornly high, with German CPI numbers fairly static, which is a concern considering the economy is falling off a cliff. German Imports plunged 13.2% for July, the most since 1987, which is further confirmation of the dire situation the German economy is in. The softer inflationary pressures allowed the US Dollar to fall back, with the EUR breaking back above 1.0900, while the GBP regained 1.2700.
The easing of the reserve allowed further consolidation of commodity currencies, with the AUD pushing back above 0.6450, while the NZD regained 0.5950. Building Permits in both Australia (minus 10.6%) and NZ (minus 5.2%) confirmed the pressures in the housing industry, as huge cost rises and flagging demand take their toll. All eyes now turn towards US inflation and the all-important Non-Farm Payrolls number.
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