隔夜市场 等待变化

尽管面临严峻的经济和地缘政治挑战,股票市场仍录得上涨,债券收益率也从近期历史高位回落。 非农就业数据强劲,美国消费者物价指数 (CPI) 和生产者价格指数 (PPI) 的通胀数据高于预期,这通常会导致债券收益率上升和股市走低,考虑到以色列爆发战争,股市的飙升也令人困惑,这应该会带来不确定性并导致市场混乱。 然而,股市上涨,债券收益率走低,货币相当稳定。 通货膨胀和战争最终将影响市场,这只是时间问题。 下周将公布中国发布的大量经济数据,包括 GDP 增长、零售销售和工业生产。 美国零售销售数据将是衡量消费者状况的一大亮点,欧洲的通胀数据也将是关键。 美元收复了一些失地,欧元回落至1.0500,而英镑回落至1.2140。
 
交易周结束时,美元汇价上升打击了商品货币,澳元跌破0.6300,新西兰元在全国大选前跌破0.5900。 新西兰大选将于周末举行,民意调查显示政府将发生变化。 如果真是这样,那么中右翼联合政府将对市场有利,混乱的结果可能会导致市场不稳定。 在澳大利亚,市场将关注澳大利亚央行,该行将发布最新会议纪要和年度报告。


Equity markets posted a week of gains and bond yields came off recent record highs, despite serious economic and Geo-Political challenges. Non-Farm Payrolls came in hot and inflation readings from US CPI and PPI were higher than expected, which would normally lead to higher bond yields and lower equity markets, but no? The surge in equities was also confusing, considering the outbreak of war in Israel, which should cause uncertainty and lead to market disruption. Stock markets instead rallied, bond yields drifted lower, and currencies were fairly stable. Inflation and war will impact the markets, and this will only be a matter of time. This coming week will reveal a plethora of economic data releases from China, including GDP growth, Retail Sales, and Industrial Production. US Retail Sales will be a highlight, to measure the state of the consumer and inflation data from Europe will also be key. The USD did regain some ground, with the EUR slipping back o 1.0500, while the GBP fell back to 1.2140.
 
The rising reserve hit the commodity currencies at the end of the trading week, with the AUD falling below 0.6300, as the NZD crashed below 0.5900 ahead of the National Elections. The NZ Election will be held over the weekend and polls point to a change in Government. If this is so, then a Centre-Right Coalition Government would be a positive for markets. A confused result may result in unsettled markets. In Australia markets will be focused on the RBA, which releases the minutes from their latest meeting and their Annual Report.

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