隔夜市场 法国选举结果导致欧洲市场持续下跌

市场消化了法国和英国大选的政治后果,但显然并不喜欢。市场依靠确定性而繁荣,而法国人密谋操纵选举的结果并不是他们想要的。欧洲股市暴跌,法国议会选举结果意味着没有一个主要政党拥有多数席位,导致很难看到联合政府执政。技术官僚形成政府是一种选择,但混乱和不确定性似乎是更可能的结果。英国大选的结果是确定的,工党以压倒性优势赢得少数席位,其经济计划与澳洲“阿尔巴尼斯”领导的工党政府的计划完全相同,结果可能相似。美国市场保持稳定,焦点是美联储主席在美国参议院发表的证词。鲍威尔主席谈到需要降息以确保经济增长,劳动力市场当前出现疲软将鼓励这一举措,但美联储极不愿意加入欧洲央行降息的行列。欧元勉强维持在 1.0800 水平,而英镑则跌回 1.2800 下方。
澳大利亚商业信心指数呈积极态势,但消费者信心仍然疲软。在新西兰央行公布关键利率决定之前,澳元维持在 0.6700 上方,而新西兰元则坚守在 0.6100 水平。美国的通胀数据将成为本周市场关注的焦点。
Markets digested the political fallout of the French and British elections and did not like the flavour. Markets thrive on certainty and the French conspired and manipulated result, is not what they are looking for. European equity markets plummeted. The French Parliamentary results means that no major party have a majority and it is hard to see a coalition to Govern. A technocratic Government is an option, but chaos and uncertainty appear the more likely outcome. The UK elections have resulted in certainty with a landslide minority victory for Labour. The plan appears to be housing, which is exactly the same plan as the ‘Adern and Albanese’ led labour Governments in the antipodes, in recent times. The results are likely to be similar. The US markets were steady, with a focus on testimony from the Federal Reserve Chairman, appearing in front of the US Senate. Chairman Powell spoke of the need to cut interest rates in order to ensure economic growth. The softer labour market will encourage this move, but the Fed has been extremely reluctant to join the ECB, cutting interest rate. The EUR barely holds 1.0800, while the GBP dipped back below 1.2800.
Australian Business Confidence was positive but consumer confidence remains weak. The AUD held above 0.6700, while the NZD clung grimly on to 0.6100, ahead of the key RBNZ interest rate decision. Inflation data from the US will be a week-long focus of markets.
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