隔夜市场 毫无新意的央行年会

杰克逊霍尔央行年会落下帷幕,美联储主席鲍威尔讲话对市场产生了些许影响。 鲍威尔警告未来通胀压力,并声称在适当情况下会进一步加息。 没有什么新的事情发生,也没有什么意外,因此债券收益率保持稳定,处于较高水平,美元依然坚挺。 美国股市飙升,结束了股市一周的反弹。 央行行长会议是媒体大力宣传和报道的活动,但对我们其他人来说却像是一个巨大的哈欠。 受到媒体关注的全球性事件是在南非举行的金砖国家峰会, 他们悄悄地接受了新会员,并正在考虑更多的前景,为会员贸易增加替代结算系统。 金砖国家现在几乎在所有指标上都可以与西方七国集团相媲美并超过。 这对现行全球贸易体系和美元作为全球唯一储备货币的霸权构成严重挑战。 周五发布的密歇根大学经济景气报告的消息更为悲观,数据跌至更低的水平。 市场本周将关注美国就业数据和欧洲/美国通胀数据,而美元将在交易周开盘走强。 欧元已回落至1.0800,而英镑则一路下跌至1.2600。
 
美元上升将跨塔斯曼货币推回到此前的交易低点,澳元跌至0.6400,而纽元则测试下行0.5900。 美国债券收益率上升支撑着美元走强,并加大了这些货币的下行压力,而大宗商品需求疲软则压低了价格。 未来一周将关注通胀和增长,同时密切关注美国就业市场。 劳动力市场紧张以及工资/物价螺旋上升的压力仍然是央行行长们的一大担忧。


The curtain came down on the Kansas City Fed’s annual Jackson Hole Symposium, in Wyoming. The crescendo built to the address of the Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. Powell warned of future inflationary pressures and further rates rises, if appropriate. There was nothing new and no surprises, so bond yields remained steady, at elevated levels, and the US Dollar remained strong. US equities surged to close out a week of recovery on the stock markets. The Central Bankers meeting was a highly promoted and covered event by the media, but was an almighty yawn, for the rest of us. The global event that went under the radar, with the media, was the BRICS Summit in South Africa. They quietly accepted new members and are considering many more prospects, all the while adding alternative settlement systems, for memberships trade. The BRICS now rivals and exceeds the Wests G7 by nearly every metric. This is a serious challenge to current global trading system and the hegemony of the US Dollar, as the sole global reserve currency. The University of Michigan Economic Sentiment report, released Friday, was more gloomy news, falling to even lower levels. Markets will look ahead this week to US employment, and European/US inflation readings, while the US Dollar will open the trading week strongly. The EUR has retreated back to 1.0800, while the GBP has tumbled all the way back to blow 1.2600.
 
The rising reserve pushed the trans-Tasman currencies back to the previous trading lows, with the AUD dropping to 0.6400, while the NZD tests the downside of 0.5900. Elevated US bond yields are supporting the stronger US Dollar, and increasing downward pressure on these currencies, while flagging commodity demand dents prices. The coming week will focus on inflation and growth, while monitoring the US Jobs market closely. The tight labour market, and upward pressures on wage/price spirals, remains a big concern to Central bankers.

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