隔夜市场 欧洲通胀下滑,市场预期美国今年会降息2-3次

欧洲通胀继续下滑,奥地利和欧盟的整体通胀三月份均有所下降。 欧盟通胀跌幅超出预期,从2.6%降至2.4%,为欧洲央行降息开绿灯。 同样的情绪也适用于大西洋彼岸,今年预计要到下半年才会降息 2 至 3 次。 隔夜美元走低,欧元飙升至1.0830,英镑则反弹至1.2640。 市场焦点很可能转向其他重要经济指标,毫无疑问,本周的就业数据将成为焦点。 美国就业报告符合预期,但 ADP 报告强于预期。 私营部门的就业岗位增加了 189,000 个,显示经济状况好于预期,这或许是美联储推迟降息的一个原因。
疲软的美元使得商品货币有所回升,近期商品价格飙升也提振了商品货币。 澳元反弹至 0.6550 上方,而陷入困境的纽元则有望重回 0.6000。 尽管市场一直在关注石油和黄金价格的飙升,但市场仍将密切关注美国就业数据。 能源价格是制造业和通货膨胀的杀手。
European inflation continues to tumble lower, with both Austrian and EU headline inflation, falling for March. EU inflation fell more than expected, from 2.6% to 2.4%, green-lighting ECB rate cuts. The same sentiment applies across the Atlantic, although the 2 to 3 rate cuts this year, are not expected until the second half of the year. The US Dollar headed south overnight, allowing the EUR to surge back to 1.0830, while the GBP bounced back to 1.2640. Market focus may well turn to other important economic indicators, and certainly this week, Jobs will be the focus. The US Jolts reports was in line with expectations, but the ADP Report was much stronger than expected. Jobs grew by 189,000 in the Private Sector, showing stronger than expected economic conditions, and perhaps a reason for the Fed to defer rate cuts.
The flagging reserve allowed some recovery in commodity currencies, also boosted by the recent surge in commodity prices. The AUD bounced back above 0.6550, while the beleaguered NZD looks to regain 0.6000. Close attention will be paid to US Jobs data, although markets have been watching the price of Oil and Gold surging. Energy prices are a killer for Manufacturing and inflation.
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