美国 9 月份零售销售增长 0.7%，高于预期，再次引发人们对通胀上升的担忧。 这导致美国和欧洲的债券收益率走高，反映美联储进一步加息预期增加上。 但这还不足以中断美国股市近期的反弹，市场将零售销售数据被视为对经济和经济增长有积极影响。 美国工业和制造业保持平稳，而 NAHB 房屋市场指数略有下降。 来自德国和欧洲的重要ZEW经济信心报告也比预期乐观得多，尽管仍然低迷，但足以推动欧元回到1.0600。 但英镑的情况并非如此，随着美元对债券收益率上升做出反应，英镑跌破1.2200。
新西兰最新CPI数据出台后，新西兰元走低，美元上行进一步打击新西兰元，纽元暴跌至 0.5870。 新西兰今年的总体CPI从 6% 以上骤降至 5.6%。 这一数字受到了市场的欢迎，新西兰联储进一步加息的压力显然已经减轻，但这并不能说明通胀已经解决。 2023 年第三季度的通胀率为 1.8%，远高于 2022 年第二季度、第一季度和第四季度，只是从2022 年第三季度 2.2% 的极高读数降温。澳洲联储会议纪要显示，随着通胀压力继续增大，加息即将暂停。 澳洲联储认识到全球油价因中东、欧洲战争和欧佩克+减产而上涨的压力。 如果这种情况持续下去，那么澳大利亚央行可能会在墨尔本杯的掩护下偷偷加息。 尽管美元汇率走高，但澳元兑美元还是上涨，重返 0.6350 上方。
US Retail Sales came in hotter than expected an increase of 0.7% for September, reigniting fears of rising inflation. This sent bond yields higher in both the US and Europe, which may be reflected in further interest rate rises from the Fed. This was not enough to interrupt the recent rally in US equities, where markets took the Retail Sales number, as a positive for the economy and economic growth. Industrial and Manufacturing in the US remains flat, while the NAHB House Market Index was slightly lower. The important ZEW Economic Sentiment report from Germany and Europe was much more positive than expected, although remaining depressed, but was enough to boost the EUR back towards 1.0600. This was not the case for the GBP, which slumped below 1.2200, as the US Dollar reacted to rising bond yields.
The rising reserve hit the NZD, which was already trading lower, due to the latest quarterly inflation report. Headline inflation for the year plunged to 5.6%, from over 6%, in the last annualised report. This number was welcomed by markets and the pressure was apparently off the RBNZ to further raise rates, but this did not tell the full story. Q3 2023 came in at 1.8%, much higher than Q2, Q1 and Q4 2022, just cooler and replacing the extremely high reading of 2.2% in Q3 2022. Inflation is not cooling, just the headline annualised rate, but the NZD plunged to 0.5870 anyway. The RBA minutes suggested the pause in rate rises, was a close thing, as inflationary pressures continue to build. The RBA recognised the pressures from global oil prices, rising due to war in the Middle East, Europe and OPEC+ oil cuts. If these conditions continue, then the RBA may sneak a rate rise in, under cover of the Melbourne Cup. The AUD posted gains, despite the firmer reserve, breaking back above 0.6350.
新西兰最新CPI数据出台后，新西兰元走低，美元上行进一步打击新西兰元，纽元暴跌至 0.5870。 新西兰今年的总体CPI从 6% 以上骤降至 5.6%。 这一数字受到了市场的欢迎，新西兰联储进一步加息的压力显然已经减轻，但这并不能说明通胀已经解决。 2023 年第三季度的通胀率为 1.8%，远高于 2022 年第二季度、第一季度和第四季度，只是从2022 年第三季度 2.2% 的极高读数降温。澳洲联储会议纪要显示，随着通胀压力继续增大，加息即将暂停。 澳洲联储认识到全球油价因中东、欧洲战争和欧佩克+减产而上涨的压力。 如果这种情况持续下去，那么澳大利亚央行可能会在墨尔本杯的掩护下偷偷加息。 尽管美元汇率走高，但澳元兑美元还是上涨，重返 0.6350 上方。
US Retail Sales came in hotter than expected an increase of 0.7% for September, reigniting fears of rising inflation. This sent bond yields higher in both the US and Europe, which may be reflected in further interest rate rises from the Fed. This was not enough to interrupt the recent rally in US equities, where markets took the Retail Sales number, as a positive for the economy and economic growth. Industrial and Manufacturing in the US remains flat, while the NAHB House Market Index was slightly lower. The important ZEW Economic Sentiment report from Germany and Europe was much more positive than expected, although remaining depressed, but was enough to boost the EUR back towards 1.0600. This was not the case for the GBP, which slumped below 1.2200, as the US Dollar reacted to rising bond yields.
The rising reserve hit the NZD, which was already trading lower, due to the latest quarterly inflation report. Headline inflation for the year plunged to 5.6%, from over 6%, in the last annualised report. This number was welcomed by markets and the pressure was apparently off the RBNZ to further raise rates, but this did not tell the full story. Q3 2023 came in at 1.8%, much higher than Q2, Q1 and Q4 2022, just cooler and replacing the extremely high reading of 2.2% in Q3 2022. Inflation is not cooling, just the headline annualised rate, but the NZD plunged to 0.5870 anyway. The RBA minutes suggested the pause in rate rises, was a close thing, as inflationary pressures continue to build. The RBA recognised the pressures from global oil prices, rising due to war in the Middle East, Europe and OPEC+ oil cuts. If these conditions continue, then the RBA may sneak a rate rise in, under cover of the Melbourne Cup. The AUD posted gains, despite the firmer reserve, breaking back above 0.6350.
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