隔夜市场 新西兰央行意外宣布降息,纽元汇率大跌

英国和美国的通胀数据恰好符合预期水平,英国 CPI 上涨至 2.2%(降息后),而美国在 9 月降息之前预计继续释放宽松预期。欧洲央行降息后,欧洲通胀上升,英国通胀率的上涨也在意料之中。美国总体通胀率降至 2.9%,这应该足以让美联储董事会开始降息周期。欧洲 GDP 增长数据显示出微小的复苏迹象,奥地利、荷兰和欧盟的增长转为正值。欧元继续上涨,触及 1.1000,而英镑则跌至 1.2820。
新西兰央行降息 25 个基点,令许多人感到意外,央行行长宣布对通胀的战争已经结束。这对货币的影响是可以预见的,下跌一美分,交易价低于 0.6000,对于降息而言,这样的跌幅是意料之中的。这再次证明,抑制通胀的最佳方法是经济衰退,美联储很可能很快宣布降息。另一个令市场感到意外的是日本首相辞职,市场猜测可能与日本的市场和货币动荡有关。
UK and US inflation data came in right on expected levels, with the UK CPI edging up to 2.2% (post interest rate cut), while the US continued to ease ahead of an anticipated rate cut in September. The UK inflation jump was expected, following increases in European inflation, post the ECB rate cut, but the heat is now on for the Fed to follow suit. The US headline inflation rate fell to 2.9%, which may be enough for the Fed board to begin the rate cutting cycle. European GDP growth data showed tiny green shoots, with growth turning positive in Austria, Holland and the EU. The EUR continued to gain ground, hitting 1.1000, while the GBP drifted to 1.2820.
The RBNZ surprised many by cutting rates 25 basis points, with the RBNZ Governor declaring the war on inflation was over. The impact on the currency was predictable, falling a cent, to trade below 0.6000. This changes interest rate differentials between currencies and was thus expected. This is proof once again that the best way to kill inflation is recession. The Fed is likely to follow suit, anon. The other market surprise was the resignation of the Japanese PM, probably related to the market and currency turmoil in Japan.
en_NZEnglish (New Zealand)
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