隔夜市场 整体向右

备受期待的个人消费支出 (PCE) 数据与预期完全一致,为 2.6%。和预期一致的数据对市场方向毫无影响,但欧洲和美国债券收益率却大幅上涨。这表明市场认为美联储不会在短期内降息。英国 GDP 数据如预期转为正值,结束了技术性衰退,这对摇摇欲坠的保守党政府来说是一个急需的提振,预计在本周举行的选举中保守党政府将会面临惨败。即将举行的法国议会选举也意味着马克龙政府将惨败,这可能会对整个欧洲产生影响。欧洲和美国的政治潮流正在转变,欧盟选举显示,中间偏右的政治倾向正在出现,美国总统辩论也证实了这一趋势。“敏锐而机智”的拜登证实了大多数人都知道的事情,他生活在一个疯狂的世界,不应该领导美国。尽管 GDP 增长有所改善,但欧元仍维持在 1.0700 左右,而英镑则回落至 1.2620。
大宗商品货币仍面临压力,新西兰元交易价低于 0.6100,而澳元徘徊在 0.6650 左右。日元是承受压力最大的货币,创下 1986 年以来的最低点,跌至 161.27。未来一周,市场将关注欧洲的通胀,而美国市场将密切关注就业数据。本周将发布一系列就业报告,周五将发布非农就业数据。本周可能开局强劲,但美国独立日假期恰逢周四。许多人将享受四天的假期,因此交易周将非常短暂。
The much-anticipated PCE inflation indicator came in exactly as forecast, at 2.6%. This expected inflation level, did nothing for market direction, but Bond Yields jumped higher in Europe and the USA. This points to a market perception that the Fed will not be cutting rates any time soon. UK GDP numbers came in positive, as expected, ending the technical recession. This was a much-needed boost for the flailing Conservative Government, ahead of an expected bloodbath election for the Tories, this coming week. French Parliamentary elections also promise a bloodbath for the Macron Government, which could have consequences throughout Europe. The political tide is turning in Europe and the USA. The EU elections showed an emerging right of Centre political bias, which was also a trend confirmed in the US with the Presidential debate. The ‘sharp and quick witted’ Biden confirmed what most knew, he is living in a demented world and should not be leading the USA. The EUR held around 1.0700, while the GBP drifted back to 1.2620, despite the improvement in GDP growth.
Commodity currencies remain under pressure, with the NZD trading below 0.6100, while the AUD hovers around 0.6650. The Yen is the currency under the most pressure, hitting lows not seen since 1986, plunging to 161.27. This coming week will see a focus on inflation in Europe, while US markets will be watching employment numbers closely. A series of employment reports will be coming out this week, culminating in Non-Farm Payrolls, released Friday. The week may start off strongly, but the Independence Day holiday in the US, falls on Thursday. Many will take a four-day weekend, thus ensuring a very short trading week.
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