隔夜市场 市场进入降息交易 道指创历史新高

在美联储做出鸽派利率决定后,道指飙升至创纪录水平,首次突破 37,000 点。 美联储维持利率不变,并为未来 2024 年降息敞开了大门。这为股票和债券市场开了绿灯。 美国10年期国债收益率跌破4%,股市飙升。 英国央行、瑞士央行和欧洲央行都纷纷效仿,只有挪威央行在欧洲加息。 欧洲央行继续收缩资产负债表,对抗货币通胀,但看起来不再将加息作为对抗通胀的工具。 英国央行的态度更为强硬,九名董事会成员中的三名投票决定加息,并且该行仍保持警惕。 美元下跌,英镑飙升至1.2750,但鸽派的欧洲央行认为欧元停滞在1.0800附近。
美元的走软使得商品货币反弹,纽元迅速逼近0.6200,而澳元有望重回0.6700。 新西兰 GDP 增长数字令人震惊,第三季度 GDP 收缩(0.3%),年化收缩(0.6%)。 澳大利亚整体失业率从 3.8% 上升至 3.9%,但新增就业岗位 61,500 个,参与率上升至 67.2%。 随着债券收益率暴跌,圣诞老人的涨势似乎将在股市继续下去,但大多数西方经济体仍然面临严峻的经济挑战。
The Dow soared into record territory, above 37,000 for the first time, following a dovish rate decision from the Fed. The Fed left rates unchanged and left the door open for future rate cuts in 2024. This was a green-light to equity and bond markets. The US 10-year yields crashed below 4% and equities surged. The Bank of England, Swiss National bank and the ECB all followed suit, with only the Norwegian Central Bank raising rates in Europe. The ECB continues to shrink the balance sheets, battling monetary inflation, but looks done with rate rises as an instrument to combat inflation. The Bank of England was more hawkish, as three of the nine board members voted to raise rates and the Bank remains vigilant. The US Dollar was in decline, with the GBP surging back to 1.2750, but the dovish ECB saw the EUR stall around 1.0800.
The softer reserve allowed a bounce in the commodity currencies, with the NZD fast approaching 0.6200, while the AUD looks to regain 0.6700. The NZ GDP growth number was a shocker, with Q3 GDP contracting (0.3%), annualised contraction of (0.6%). Australian headline Unemployment rose from 3.8% to 3.9%, but added 61,500 new jobs, as the participation rate rose to 67.2%. The Santa Claus rally looks set to continue on equity markets, as bond yields tumble, but there remain serious economic challenges for most Western economies.
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