隔夜市场 市场期待联储开启降息周期 持续位于纪录高位

周五全球股市飙升至历史新高,抹去了 8 月初因担心美国经济衰退而遭受损失。欧洲和美国发布的经济数据有所改善,消除了人们对经济衰退的担忧。欧洲央行和英国央行的降息刺激了经济增长,但通胀并没有大幅回升,美联储货币政策转向宽松的前景提振了人们对经济和股市的信心。美元收复了一些失地,结束了本周和本月,欧元跌至 1.1100 以下,而英镑则跌至 1.3130。
全球市场信心高涨支持了大宗商品价格和相关货币的复苏。澳元从 0.6800 回落,而新西兰元有望收复 0.6250,原因是商业信心数据强劲。本周将关注美国劳工报告,周五将公布非农就业数据。不久前,美国大幅下调了今年的就业数据,因此市场预期并不高。人们对数据的信心肯定受到了重创,美国就业增长的可信度也因此受到质疑。加拿大央行预计将于本周降息,紧随欧洲央行和英国央行,领先于美联储预期的货币政策调整。
Global equity markets surged to record highs Friday, wiping out ‘correction level’ losses suffered earlier in August, blamed on fears of a US recession. The economic data coming out of Europe and the US has improved and eliminated fears of a recession. Interest rate cuts from the ECB and Bank of England have stimulated growth, without too much of a resurgence in inflation. The prospects of the Fed’s monetary policy changing to an easing bias has surged confidence in the economy and share markets. The US Dollar regained some ground, to close out the week and month, with the EUR falling back below 1.1100, while the GBP drifted to 1.3130.
Surging confidence in global markets have supported a recovery in commodity prices and the associated currencies. The AUD retraced from 0.6800, while the NZD looks to regain 0.6250, following strong business confidence numbers. This coming week will focus on US labour reports, culminating in Fridays Non-Farm Payrolls number. The expectations are not high, following the massive revision lower of the year’s numbers, not so long ago. Confidence in the numbers must have taken a big hit and should question the validity of jobs growth, in the US. The Bank of Canada is expected to cut interest rates this week, following the ECB and Bank of England and ahead of the Fed’s expected change in monetary policy.
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