隔夜市场 小银行难扛加息压力

美国各地的地区银行纷纷发出警告信号,股价大幅下跌,央行持续高利率增加地区银行和其他大型政府国债持有者的风险。CBDC 的时代可能即将到来,CBDC 将消除对区域银行的需求,整合中央银行周围的银行业,并只允许“大而不能倒”的银行作为银行服务的促进者生存。  欧洲央行和美联储均警告称,由于通胀风险依然存在,特别是考虑到不断扩大的中东战争对供应链的影响,利率将“在较长时间内保持较高水平”。 12 月份德国工业生产进一步萎缩 1.6%,创下历史最长跌幅。 “欧洲发动机室”的去工业化仍在继续,带来了毁灭性的长期后果,具有讽刺意味的是,这继续加剧了通货膨胀。 欧元交投于1.0750附近,而英镑则回升至1.2600。

新西兰就业数据好于预期,失业率升至 4%,而预测值为4.2%。 劳动力市场紧张有点误导,因为实体经济并没有反映这些极其紧张的状况,这要归咎于就业衡量技术的缺陷。 随着未来几天数据的公布,市场将关注欧洲通胀放缓的迹象。

Regional Banks are flashing warning signals across the US, with steep declines in share prices, indicating the CBDC may be on its way. The CBDC will eliminate the need for regional banks, consolidating Banking around the Central Bank and allowing only ‘too big to fail’ Banks to survive, as facilitators of banking services. The continued high Central Bank interest rates serve to elevate risk for regional banks and other sizable holders of Government Treasuries. The ECB and the Fed have both warned of rates remaining ‘higher for longer’, as inflationary risks remain, especially considering the impact on the supply chain of the expanding Middle East war. German Industrial Production contracted a further 1.6% in December, logging the longest ever decline. The De-Industrialisation of the ‘engine-room of Europe’ continues, with devastating long-term consequences, although ironically stamping on inflation. The EUR trades around 1.0750, while the GBP regained 1.2600.

New Zealand employment data was better than expected, with Unemployment rising to 4%, while forecasts had expected a spike to 4.2%. The tight labour market is a bit of a misdirection, as the real economy does not reflect these extremely tight conditions, with the flawed employment measurement techniques to blame. Markets will be watching for signs of inflation easing in Europe, as data is released over the next couple of days.

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