隔夜市场 债券收益率持续上行对“利率峰值”构成挑战

美国和欧洲股市延续九月的疲软走势继续走低。 美国和欧洲债券收益率重新恢复上行,制造业PMI数据则呈现直线下滑状态。 欧洲的PMI数据极其疲弱,德国制造业仍在急剧收缩,去工业化现象明显从德国蔓延至欧盟其他国家。 美国债券收益率的继续上升对市场已经达到“通胀峰值”和“利率峰值”的说法构成了严重挑战。 美元受到债券收益率上升的支撑,欧元回落至1.0500下方,而日元则快速逼近150。

 
商品货币正遭受美元上升的影响,澳元暴跌至0.6360,而纽元则徘徊在0.5950。 尽管短观报告似乎稍为乐观,但澳大利亚制造业 PMI 数据与日本的情况一样,显示制造业持续出现收缩。 当地市场现在高度关注今天的澳洲央行的利率决定。 市场认为虽然通胀持续上升,但澳洲央行行长肯定不敢挑战任命她的政党。



US and European equity markets continued the weakness of September trading lower. US and European bond yields resumed their upward rise, while manufacturing PMI data is in a state of freefall. PMI data in Europe was extremely weak, with the apparent de-industrialisation spreading from Germany to the rest of the EU. Manufacturing in Germany is contracting sharply, and this is recognised in the PMI numbers. The rise in US Bond Yields continues to defy the narrative, that markets have reached ‘peak inflation’ and ‘peak interest rates’. The US Dollar is supported by the rising bond yields, with the EUR falling back below 1.0500, while the Yen is fast approaching 150!
 
Commodity currencies are suffering the rising reserve, with the AUD plunging to 0.6360, while the NZD staggered to trade 0.5950. Australian Manufacturing PMI data revealed a contraction in manufacturing, as was the case in Japan, despite a more bullish Tankan report. Local markets are now heavily focused on today’s RBA rate decision. inflation continues to rise but the RBA Governor would surely not dare to challenge her political masters?

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