隔夜市场 债券收益率令人担心

美国债券收益率隔夜创下 15 年新高,触及 4.675%,但接近收盘时走低。 德国9月CPI数据符合预期,回落至4.5%,但欧洲债券收益率仍继续上升。 石油价格处于极高水平,供应紧张预计将持续整个冬季。 美国第二季度 GDP 按年率计算为 2.1%,其他经济数据仍然疲弱,8 月份待售房屋销售进一步萎缩 7.1%,全年来算大跌 18.7%。 堪萨斯城联储制造业指数跌至-13,反映出美国制造业的危险状况。 现在所有人的目光都转向美国PCE通胀指标,预计该指标将证实通胀持续降温。由于PCE是美联储密切关注的指标,降温趋势如果持续则一切无碍,否则我们可能会再次看到债券收益率上升。 欧洲债券收益率上升支撑欧元反弹至1.0560,英镑则回升至1.2200。
 
美元的回落使得商品货币有所回升。 澳元反弹至 0.6400 以上,而纽元则因好于预期的商业信心指数而回升至 0.5950。 国内市场今天将关注日本公布的通胀数据,然后注意力将转向今晚公布的美国 PCE 通胀数据。


US Bond Yields hit a fresh 15-year high overnight, touching 4.675%, but drifted lower towards the close. German inflation data for September was in line with expectations, cooling back to 4.5%, but European Bond Yields continued to rise. Oil prices remain at extremely elevated levels and tight supply is expected to continue throughout the winter months. US Q2 GDP came in at 2.1%, annualised, but economic data remains weak. Pending Homes Sales contracted a further 7.1% in August, crashing 18.7% for the year. The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index tumbled to minus 13, reflecting the parlous state of manufacturing in the US. All eyes now turn to the US PCE inflation indicator, which is expected to confirm continued cooling of inflation. This is he indicator that the Fed follows closely, so the cooling trend must continue, or we might see further rises in Bond yields. The rise in European bond yields supported the EUR, which bounced back to 1.0560, while the GBP headed back towards 1.2200.
 
The easing in the reserve, allowed the commodity currencies some recovery. The AUD bounced back above 0.6400, while the NZD pushed back to 0.5950, boosted by a better-than-expected Business Confidence number. Domestic markets will be watching the release of Japanese inflation numbers today and then attention will turn to the US PCE inflation number out tonight.

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