市场平静收官,开始展望2024年

在美国长周末之前,股票市场相对消极。 2023 全年以乐观收官,股市创历史新高,债券收益率暴跌,市场庆祝美联储计划于 2024 年降息,于此同时市场正在寻找新的方向。美联储几乎已宣布战胜通胀,并已做好准备降息并释放银行资产负债表的压力,剩余的问题是通货膨胀的余波会持续多久。 加沙的战争已经蔓延到红海,也门封锁了航运,这导致供应链出现问题,推高商品和能源价格,再次引发通胀压力。 中东战事升级、乌克兰战事延长,只会加剧这一局势。 美元保持稳定,欧元交投于1.0950附近,英镑则重回1.2750。
美元稳定,商品货币依然疲软,澳元交投于0.6700下方,而纽元则努力维持在0.6200上方。 未来一周的焦点将是增长和通胀,而地缘政治事件可能会主导市场。
Markets closed out a relatively negative week flat, ahead of the US long weekend. Markets are looking for direction after closing out 2023 on a positive note, with equities reaching for record highs, with bond yields crashing, in celebration of the Fed’s telegraphed rate cuts planned for 2024. The Fed has all but declared victory over inflation and is ready to cut rates and release the pressure on the Banks’ collective balance sheets. The problem is inflation. The war in Gaza has spread, to include the Red Sea, and a Yemeni blockade on shipping. This has led to supply chain problems and pushed the prices of goods and energy upwards, once again triggering inflationary pressures. An escalation of the Middle East war and the extension of the war in the Ukraine, can only aggravate the situation. The US Dollar remained steady, with the EUR trading around 1.0950, while the GBP regains1.2750.
The reserve was steady, and the commodity currencies remain subdued, with the AUD trading below 0.6700, while the NZD struggles to hold above 0.6200. This coming week will be focused on growth and inflation, while Geo-Political events threaten to dominate markets.
en_NZEnglish (New Zealand)
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