对通胀长期化的担心

对通胀、利率和银行业状况的担忧隔夜给市场带来沉重压力。 美联储会议纪要发布后,全球债券收益率飙升,显示出对通胀长期化的担忧。 评级机构惠誉和标准普尔都在关注美国银行业,并发出警告信号和下调评级。 随着市场信心的变化,美国股市继续下跌。 市场注意力将转向欧盟通胀,消费者物价指数 (CPI) 数据将于今天晚些时候发布。 欧洲的通胀一直在下降,但核心通胀仍然是一个巨大的威胁。 欧元跌至1.0860,而英国的通胀压力和进一步加息的前景则推动英镑升至1.2700上方。
 
澳大利亚失业率数据有所上升,总体失业率从 3.5% 跃升至 3.7%。 移民的大量增加开始缓解极度紧张的劳动力市场,从而减少工资/物价螺旋上升的压力,这正是澳大利亚央行所寻求的。 大量移民涌入澳大利亚也促进了 GDP 增长,为政府提供了理想的增长叙述,但也带来了住房、基础设施、教育和健康方面的一些具有挑战性的问题。 当地市场将关注将于今天晚些时候发布的日本通胀数据,同时消化昨天来自日本的非常疲弱的贸易数据。 澳元受到需求和大宗商品价格下跌的影响,回落至0.6370,而纽元似乎将下行测试0.5900。


Fears over inflation, interest rates and the state of the banking sector, weigh heavily on markets overnight. Global Bond yields are surging, following the release of the Fed Minutes, confirming worries over persistent inflation. Ratings agencies Fitch and S&P are both looking at the US Banking sector and issuing warning signals and downgrades. US equities continue to tumble along with market confidence. Attention will turn to EU inflation, with the CPI reading, due for release later today. Inflation in Europe has been tumbling lower, but core inflation remains a big threat. The EUR traded down to 1.0860, while the inflationary pressures in the UK and the prospect of further rate rises, have pushed the GBP above 1.2700.
 
Australian Unemployment data pinched upwards, with the headline rate jumping to 3.7%, from 3.5%. The massive increase in immigration is beginning to ease the pressure on what has been an extremely tight labour market (which is what the RBA is looking for), to ease pressures on the wage/price spiral. This huge influx of immigrants into Australia is also boost GDP growth, giving the Government the desired growth narrative, but presents some challenging problems around housing, infrastructure, education and health. Local markets will focus on the Japanese inflation number, due to be released later today, while digesting the very weak trade data, coming from Japan in yesterday’s numbers. The AUD has suffered from the decline in demand and commodity prices, falling back to 0.6370, while the NZD looks set to test 0.5900, on the downside.

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